The Case Against Ilya Kovalchuk…or Why Jamie Benn is Way More Awesome

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Are we still calling Ilya Kovalchuk‘s poor production a fluke?

We all know that last season Kovalchuk was scoring at a glacial rate, or it seemed that way as he only had 10 pts through the first 23 games. There were questions abound whether he had lost his scoring touch, was the New Jersey style of hockey killing his offensive prowess, and similarily worded questions as to make them sound original.

I was one of the few trying to calm the herd, after all Kovalchuk had been,  and at that point still was, a point per game player. Despite the slow start he managed to turn it around and produce at a .86 Pt/Gp pace from December on ward. Enough production to warrant making a trade for him early in the season- as I had advocated, but not enough to remove the sour taste from the mouths of owners who used a first round draft pick on him.

This year has started no different, or so it seems. For a player considered to be amongst the leagues most skiller, and feared shooters 7 pts in 10 games just isn’t good enough. Well it’s not, but let’s not be hasty here. It is a small sample size after all, and he is still a career .99 Pt/Gp player despite last season’s struggles. But that’s where the positives end.

Let’s disect Kovalchuk’s stats and see why he should be no more  than a secondary offensive producer for your fantasy team. First let’s address that the first three rounds of your draft should typically load your roster with no doubt 80-100 pts forwards, ones who will contribute POSITIVE +/- marks. There after you begin to add your secondary producers, or your supporting staff. Back to the point at hand.

1- Kovalchuk sports a nifty career mark of -108, or in other words, roughly what Tiger Woods’ career score card would read. So it’s not pretty. This season he has a -7 mark, which puts him on pace for a damning -57. Now we know that that won’t happen, but to see him with a +/- above -20 would be considered a surprise.

2- The days of 40+ goals are gone. The Devils system will never be fully centered around Kovalchuk, as it was in Atlanta.  He’s not being relied on to shoot the puck 290+ times per season so with that alone the goals will suffer. Bank on 30, be estatic if he produces more.

3- With more and more leagues counting Hits as a stat, Kovalchuk’s value take another hit. You have to go all the way back to the 2006-2007 season to see him record 50+ hits! He’s currently on pace to record 24 hits. Or about the amount that Cal Clutterbuck records each week.

4- He’s never really been much of an assists guy. I know, I know, it goes with the territory when it comes to the Russian sniper, but if he’s not getting the opportunity to shoot the puck as often, and he’s not laying the body, and he’s not going to back check, then what good is he?

5- He does recieve a ton of ice time though, so that’s a positive. But what is he doing with it? So far he’s averaging 25.35 minutes per game, yeah that’s on average. He’s seeing 4.51 minutes of that on the power play! And what has he rewarded managers with? 10 pts, only 1 PPG! So what is he doing the rest of the time? That my friends is the exact opposite of efficiency.

Given all that, a final stat line of 30G, 30 A, 60 Pts, -25, 40 PIM, 30 H would make him relatively equal in terms to a player like, oh I don’t know the 2010-2011 version of  Mikhail Grabovski. You know the player that until recently was only owned in 57% of ESPN leagues. Or in other terms Kovalchuk is producing like a replacement value player.

Jamie Benn on the other hand, offers plenty of fantasy goodies, and does it at a far more efficient pace.

The Dallas Stars young power forward is coming off a strong sophomore season that saw him produce 56 pts in 69 games,  a .81Pt/Gp pace. So far this young season Benn is making experts the country over appear to be geniuses, as they all proclaimed him to be the next big break out star. Well it wasn’t hard to make that prediction, after all, you know, he did put up stats at an .81 Pt/Gp pace, so the writing on the wall wasn’t printed with pencil on the top edge of the base boards.  No it was painted there in bright green and gold in eight foot high letters.

Moving on, Benn hasn’t disappointed. So far he’s moving along at a .90 Pt/Gp pace with 10 pts in 11 games. More importantly he’s doing so while averaging a Pt, PIM, and Hit per game. Something you would LOVE to have your forwards doing. The most impressive part about it is the efficiency in which he’s doing it.

Benn averages just 17.23 minutes of ice time per game, just 2.34 of that comes on the power play. Or if you prefer, fewer minutes per game then teammates Mike Ribeiro, Steve Ott, Loui Eriksson, and Brendan Morrow. He also sees even less time on the power play then slug err.. I mean forward Michael Ryder (whom by the way ranks second on the team in PP TOI/GP).

I hinted earlier that Benn isn’t afraid to play the body, with 15 hits thus far Benn is on pace for 111 on the season. Again if you prefer, more then Kovalchuk has in the previous three seasons….combined! Given that Benn had 124 hits in 69 contests last year and 186 the season before  it seems like a safe bet to pencil him in more then the 111 he’s projected to finish the campaign with.

The final stat that gives Benn that extra bit of value that Kovalchuk will never have. A manageable +/- right now Benn has a +2 mark, it’s likely that that mark will drop in the negatives, but nothing worse than -5 most likely.

A season total of 20G, 50 A, 70 Pts, -5, 100 PIM, 180 H, or essentially Bobby Ryan circa 2010-2011 with a lower +/- but more H and PIMs. Yeah the guy that was taken in the second or third round of your drafts.

If you’ve got the chance to acquire Benn, then do so…immediately. He’s going to out produce Kovalchuk this year, with out a doubt. If you’re in a keeper league I highly recommend going after Benn before your opponents realize what kind of tremendous upside the young winger possess, and make him unavailable to you for the next decade.